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Inside information

02-02-2010  

Estimation of selected operating data of the Unipetrol Group for the fourth quarter 2009

Unipetrol's Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the fourth quarter 2009.

Reg. Announc. 2/2010

External Environment unit. 4Q08 1Q0​​9 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 Q/Q Y/Y FY08 FY09 FY08/
FY09
Average Brent crude oil price USD/b 56.4 44.8 59.4 68.2 74.9 +10% +33% 97.6 61.8 -37%
Average Ural crude oil price USD/b 54.6 43.7 58.5 67.8 74.2 +9% +36% 94.7 61.0 -36%
Brent/Ural differential1) USD/b 1.83 1.19 0.92 0.45 0.68 +51% -63% 2.95 0.81 -73%
Unipetrol model refining margin2) USD/b 5.14 4.23 1.28 1.31 1.38 +5% -73% 5.69 2.05 -64%
Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin3) EUR/t 503 146 183 269 240 -11% -52% 353 210 -41%
Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin4) EUR/t 36 276 242 256 251 -2% +597% 207 256 +24%
CZK/EUR5) CZK 25.3 27.6 26.7 25.6 25.9 +1% +2% 24.9 26.4 +6%
CZK/USD5) CZK 19.2 21.2 19.6 17.9 17.5 -2% -9% 17.0 19.0 +12%
USD/EUR USD 1.32 1.30 1.36 1.43 1.48 +3% +12% 1.47 1.39 -5%

1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines 17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.

Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB

 

UNIPETROL Group Production unit. 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 Q/Q Y/Y FY08 FY09

FY08/
FY09

Crude oil throughput th t​ 1,111 1,018 848 1,156 1,087 -6% -2% 4,533 4,110 -9%
Utilisation ratio % 79 74 62 84 79 -5pp 0pp 82 75 -7pp
Light distillates yield1) % 31 32 28 32 33 +1pp +2pp 31 31 0pp
Middle distillates yield2) % 43 43 47 43 44 +1pp +1pp 44 44 0pp
Heavy distillates yield3) % 10 8 11 10 11 +1pp +1pp 10 10 0pp

1) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen

 

Sales volumes - 
Refinery products
unit. 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 Q/Q Y/Y FY08 FY09 FY08/
FY09
Fuels and other refinery products th t 784 729 615 824 746 -10% -5% 3,324 2,915 -12%
Diesel th t 382 377 325 422 358 -15% -6% 1,700 1,482 -13%
Gasoline th t 179 171 133 179 176 -2% -2% 685 659 -4%
JET th t 21 16 10 28 21 -24% 0% 88 75 -15%
LPG th t 33 31 18 35 30 -14% -9% 126 115 -9%
Fuel oils th t 60 61 18 28 34 +21% -43% 210 141 -33%
Naphtha th t 1 1 5 1 0 -100% -100% 6 7 +16%
Bitumen th t 59 29 65​ 84 61 -28% +3% 258 239 -7%
Lubs th t 10 8 10 10 10 -7% -5% 42 38 -9%
Rest of refinery products th t 38 34 31 38 56 +49% 48% 209 159 -24%
Retail distribution -Benzina th t 124 109 128 134 122 -9% -2% 501 494 -1%

 

Sales volumes - Petrochemicals unit 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 Q/Q Y/Y FY08 FY09 FY08/
FY09
Petrochemicals th t 366 463 454 464 444 -4% +21% 1,830 1,825 0%
Ethylene th t 26 38 35 37 32 -13% +25% 148 143 -4%
Benzene th t 35 45 40 49 48 -1% +38% 179 182 +2%
Propylene th t 5 8 5 14 9 -37% +75% 27 36 +34%
Urea th t 39 4​8 36 41 44 +7% +11% 182 169 -7%
Ammonia th t 47 51 61 61 59 -5% +24% 192 232 +21%
C4 fraction th t 30 38 29 37 39 +5% +31% 165 144 -13%
Oxo-alcohols th t 10 11 6 1 0 -49% -96% 56 18 -68%
Polyethylene (HDPE) th t 57 70 85 61 70 +13% +22% 286 286 0%
Polypropylene th t 39 53 58 52 50 -4% +27% 196 214 +9%
Rest of petrochemical products th t 78 100 99 110 93 -16% +20% 399 402 +1%

 

Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the fourth quarter 2009:

The crude price continued its recovery during the fourth quarter 2009 with average quarterly crude price increasing by 10% quarter-on-quarter and was one third above the level that we have seen this period last year. The B-U price differential finally showed signs of slight improvement and widened to almost USD 0.7 per barrel, still significantly lower than historical average. Margins in refining remained subdued and petrochemical gave up slightly its gains from previous quarter. The CZK strengthened quarter-on-quarter against the USD and weakened against the EUR, which more than offsets in CZK terms negative effect of strengthening against the USD.

Refining

The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of refining segment in the fourth quarter 2009 were: lower crude oil throughput by 6% (negative), the widening B-U price differential by 51% (positive), stronger CZK against the USD by 2% (negative), still low refining margin with continuously adverse situation especially for middle distillates (negative), inventory effect (positive), ongoing cost cutting measures (positive) and lower demand for fuels given the seasonality pattern (negative).

Petrochemicals

The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the fourth quarter 2009 were: lower demand by 4% (negative) with demand for polyolefins making up partly for lower demand for olefins, slow down mode on steam cracker for two months due to external and internal factors (negative), ongoing cost cutting measures (positive), lower olefin as well as polyolefin margins due mainly to increasing price of feedstock (negative) and sale of unused CO2 credits in 2009 (positive).

Retail Distribution

The main factors that influenced quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the fourth quarter 2009 were: unit margins remained relatively unchanged at above average levels reached towards the end of previous quarter (neutral), 9% lower demand due to seasonality pattern (negative), statistics shows an improvement in transit transportation (positive) and ongoing cost cutting measures (positive).

Inventory and FX effects

The fluctuation in the crude oil and its derivatives prices during the fourth quarter 2009 influenced the results of the Unipetrol Group positively in refining and negatively in petrochemical.

Development of foreign exchange rates, especially positive development of the EUR versus USD exchange rate in the fourth quarter 2009, influenced positively the results of the Unipetrol Group.

One-off items

Due to the sale of unused 2009 CO2 credits in the fourth quarter 2009, we expect to book materially positive impact on the EBIT level in the amount of approximatelly CZK +300m.

Management Board EBIT estimate

Unipetrol’s Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the fourth quarter 2009 will benegative and better than the EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group in the fourth quarter 2008 but worse than in the third quarter 2009.

The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 25 February 2010 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the fourth quarter 2009.

In Prague, on 2 February 2010

Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz

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