Reg. Announc. 02/2009
UNIPETROL’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of UNIPETROL Group for the fourth quarter 2008.
| External Environment |
unit |
3Q 07 |
4Q 07 |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
FY 07 |
FY 08 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
FY/FY |
| Average Brent crude oil price |
USD/b |
74.75 |
88.46 |
96.72 |
121.19 |
115.07 |
55.45 |
72.43 |
97.11 |
-52% |
-37% |
34% |
| Average Ural crude oil price |
USD/b |
71.98 |
85.42 |
93.36 |
117.47 |
113.31 |
54.56 |
69.20 |
94.67 |
-52% |
-36% |
37% |
| URAL/Brent differential |
USD/b |
2.77 |
3.04 |
3.36 |
3.72 |
1.76 |
0.89 |
3.23 |
2.44 |
-49% |
-71% |
-24% |
| Model refining margin1 |
USD/b |
6.85 |
7.63 |
6.84 |
11.65 |
10.56 |
9.10 |
7.89 |
9.54 |
- 14% |
19% |
21% |
| Model petrochemical olefin margin2 |
EUR/t |
366.11 |
298.34 |
345.08 |
284.70 |
400.79 |
557.23 |
357.56 |
396.95 |
39% |
87% |
11% |
| Model petrochemical polyolefin margin3 |
EUR/t |
355.25 |
323.07 |
279.59 |
242.02 |
269.52 |
36.48 |
346.99 |
206.90 |
-86% |
-89% |
-40% |
| CZK/EUR4 |
CZK |
27.92 |
26.82 |
25.56 |
24.82 |
24.08 |
25.30 |
27.75 |
24.91 |
5% |
-6% |
-10% |
| CZK/USD4 |
CZK |
20.33 |
18.51 |
17.05 |
15.88 |
15.99 |
19.21 |
20.24 |
16.90 |
20% |
4% |
-17% |
| USD/EUR |
USD |
1.37 |
1.45 |
1.50 |
1.56 |
1.51 |
1.32 |
1.37 |
1.47 |
-13% |
-9% |
8% |
1) UNIPETROL model refining margin = revenues from products sold (95.5% Products = Premium Unleaded 23.4%, Regular Unleaded 15.5%, Jet/Kerosene 8.3%, Diesel 33.3%, 1% Sulphur Fuel Oil 12.9%, Propane 1.5%, Butane 0.3%, Sulphur 0.4%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
2) UNIPETROL model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 33.3% Ethylene + 33.3% Propylene + 33.3% Benzene) minus costs (100% Naphtha); product prices according to quotations.
3) UNIPETROL model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); product prices according to quotations.
4) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank. Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB
| Production |
unit |
3Q 07 |
4Q 07 |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
FY 07 |
FY 08 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
FY/FY |
| Crude oil throughput |
t t |
991 |
908 |
1,027 |
1,179 |
1,216 |
1,111 |
4,137 |
4,449 |
-9% |
22% |
8% |
| Utilisation ratio |
% |
71 |
65 |
74 |
86 |
88 |
79 |
75 |
82 |
-9pp |
+14pp |
+7pp |
| Light distillates yield1 |
% |
28 |
28 |
29 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
30 |
32 |
+1pp |
+3pp |
+2pp |
| Middle distillates yield2 |
% |
41 |
38 |
42 |
47 |
45 |
43 |
40 |
45 |
-2pp |
+1pp |
+5pp |
| Heavy distillates yield3 |
% |
12 |
15 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
0pp |
-5pp |
-2pp |
1) LPG, petrol, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen
| Sales volumes-Refinery products |
unit |
3Q 07 |
4Q 07 |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
FY 07 |
FY 08 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
FY/FY |
| Fuels |
t t |
842 |
721 |
750 |
815 |
903 |
749 |
3,647 |
3,217 |
-17% |
4% |
-12% |
| Diesel |
t t |
420 |
377 |
447 |
483 |
575 |
423 |
1,707 |
1,928 |
-26% |
12% |
13% |
| Petrol |
t t |
219 |
218 |
196 |
234 |
232 |
225 |
888 |
887 |
-3% |
3% |
0% |
| JET |
t t |
26 |
18 |
13 |
28 |
26 |
21 |
80 |
88 |
-19% |
17% |
10% |
| LPG |
t t |
501 |
21 |
17 |
22 |
27 |
25 |
1781 |
91 |
-7% |
19% |
-49% |
| Fuel oils |
t t |
45 |
68 |
75 |
48 |
40 |
55 |
289 |
218 |
38% |
-19% |
-25% |
| Naphtha |
t t |
821 |
19 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
5051 |
5 |
-100% |
-100% |
-99% |
| Bitumen |
t t |
81 |
79 |
34 |
89 |
83 |
64 |
276 |
270 |
-23% |
-19% |
-2% |
| Lubs |
t t |
7 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
28 |
25 |
-29% |
-29% |
-11% |
| Retail distribution |
t t |
132 |
128 |
114 |
129 |
133 |
124 |
497 |
500 |
-7% |
-3% |
1% |
1) Includes internal sales to production of monomers
| Sales volumes-Petrochemicals |
unit |
3Q 07 |
4Q 07 |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
FY 07 |
FY 08 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
FY/FY |
| Petrochemicals |
t t |
342 |
251 |
405 |
422 |
396 |
329 |
1,459 |
1,552 |
-17% |
31% |
6% |
| Ethylene |
t t |
32 |
23 |
38 |
43 |
42 |
30 |
154 |
153 |
-29% |
30% |
-1% |
| Benzene |
t t |
41 |
18 |
43 |
50 |
51 |
35 |
163 |
179 |
-31% |
94% |
10% |
| Propylene |
t t |
5 |
3 |
11 |
12 |
9 |
5 |
33 |
27 |
-44% |
67% |
-18% |
| Urea |
t t |
42 |
28 |
52 |
41 |
49 |
39 |
170 |
181 |
-20% |
39% |
6% |
| Ammonia |
t t |
45 |
37 |
55 |
44 |
48 |
49 |
183 |
196 |
2% |
32% |
7% |
| C4 fraction |
t t |
33 |
20 |
44 |
46 |
45 |
30 |
140 |
165 |
-33% |
50% |
18% |
| Oxo-alcohols |
t t |
12 |
10 |
15 |
15 |
17 |
9 |
54 |
56 |
-47% |
-10% |
4% |
| Polyethylene (HDPE) |
t t |
70 |
58 |
73 |
95 |
62 |
57 |
265 |
287 |
-8% |
-2 % |
8% |
| Polypropylene |
t t |
48 |
36 |
49 |
55 |
53 |
39 |
187 |
196 |
-26% |
8% |
5% |
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the fourth quarter 2008:
The crude price continued in its sharp decline in the fourth quarter 2008. We also saw further narrowing of B-U price differential that fell to 7-year-low. USD further strengthened against EUR, while CZK weakened against both USD and EUR.
Refining & Marketing
The main factors that influenced the performance of R&M in the fourth quarter 2008 were: sharply decreasing prices of crude oil and its derivatives, narrowing B-U price differential, weaker gasoline-crude price spread, and slowing diesel demand.
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the performance of the petrochemical segment in the fourth quarter 2008 were: slump in prices of petrochemical products, lower polyolefin margins (polymer prices falling much faster than quarterly quoted monomer prices, except for benzene), weak demand for petrochemical products due to customers' destocking, and cutting back production. Additionally, ethylene unit shut down in October impacted the fourth quarter operating result (see Extraordinary items paragraph). The fall in prices of ethylene and propylene came only in January 2009, to 520 EUR/t and 430 EUR/t respectively.
Retail Distribution
Czech retail market stagnated in the fourth quarter in terms of volumes with unit margins under pressure due to rapidly decreasing prices.
Inventory effects
The sharp decrease of crude oil price in the fourth quarter 2008 as compared to the third quarter 2008 resulted in negative inventory revaluation and decreased the operating result byCZK 1,824m.
Extraordinary items
UNIPETROL’s ethylene unit shut down took place from 6th October to 1st November 2008 (i.e. 25 days). The total negative impact of the shut down on the fourth quarter 2008 operating result has been assessed in the amount ofCZK 229m.The total impact includes both lost margin and maintenance costs.
Management board EBIT estimate
UNIPETROL Management Board estimates that reported EBIT of UNIPETROL Group in the fourth quarter is likely to benegative.
Financial information published in this report is an estimate and the values may differ from the values which are to be published on 26 February 2009 in UNIPETROL consolidated financial statements and/or presentation for the fourth quarter 2009.
In Prague, 3 February 2009
Management Board of UNIPETROL and Investor Relations Department
UNIPETROL, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00, Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: + 420 225 001 417
E-mail:ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz