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Inside information

20-10-2008  

Estimation of selected operating data of the UNIPETROL Group for the third quarter 2008

Reg. Announc. 25/2008

UNIPETROL’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of UNIPETROL Capital Group for the third quarter 2008.

External Environment unit 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 9M 07 9M 08 Q/Q Y/Y 9M/9M
Average Brent crude oil price USD/b 74.75 88.46 96.72 121.19 115.07 67.09 110.99 -5% 54% 65%
Average Ural crude oil price USD/b 71.98 85.42 93.36 117.47 113.31 63.79 108.05 -4% 57% 69%
URAL/Brent differential USD/b 2.77 3.04 3.36 3.72 1.76 3.30 2.95 -53% -36% -11%
UNIPETROL model refining margin1) USD/b 6.85 7.63 6.84 11.65 10.56 7.97 9.68 -9% 54% 21%
UNIPETROL model petrochemical olefin margin2) EUR/t 366.11 2​98.34 345.08 284.70 400.79 377.30 343.52 41% 9% -9%
UNIPETROL model petrochemical polyolefin margin3) EUR/t 355.25 323.07 279.59 242.02 269.52 354.97 263.71 11% -24% -26%
CZK/EUR4) CZK 27.92 26.82 25.56 24.82 24.08 28.07 24.82 -3% -14% -12%
CZK/USD4) CZK 20.33 18.51 17.05 15.88 15.99 20.89 16.31 1% -21% -22%

1) UNIPETROL model refining margin = revenues from products sold (95.5% Products = Premium Unleaded 23.4%, Regular Unleaded 15.5%, Jet/Kerosene 8.3%, Diesel 33.3%, 1% Sulphur Fuel Oil 12.9%, Propane 1.5%, Butane 0.3%, Sulphur 0.4%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated);; products prices according to quotations.
2) UNIPETROL model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 33.3% Ethylene + 33.3% Propylene + 33.3% Benzene) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
3) UNIPETROL model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
4) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates in accordance to the Czech National Bank.
Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB

 

UNIPETROL Group Production unit 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 9M 07 9M 08 Q/Q Y/Y 9M/9M
Crude oil throughput th t 991 908 1,027 1,179 1,216 3,229 3,422 3% 23% 6%
Utilisation ratio % % 71 65 74 86 88 78 83 +2pp +17pp +5pp
Light distillates yield1) % 28 28 ​29 28 30 27 29 +2pp +2pp +2pp
Middle distillates yield2) % 41 38 42 47 45 41 45 -2pp +4pp +4pp
Heavy distillates yield3) % 12 15 10 10 10 12 10 0 -2pp -2pp

1) LPG, petrol, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen

 

UNIPETROL Group Sales Refinery products unit 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 9M 07 9M 08 Q/Q Y/Y 9M/9M
Fuels th t 842 721 750 815 903 2,926 2,468 11% 7% -16%
Diesel th t 420 377 447 483 575 1,330 1,505 19% 37% 13%
Petrol th t 219 218 196 234 232 670 662 -1% 6% -1%
JET th t 26 18 13 28 26 62 67 -7% 0% 8%
LPG th t 501) 21 17 22 27 1571) 66 23% -46%  
Fuel oils th t 45 68 ​75 48 40 221 163 -17% -11% -26%
Naphtha th t 821) 19 2 0 3 4861) 5      
Bitumen th t 81 79 34 89 83 197 206 -7% 2% 5%
Retail distribution th t 132 128 114 129 133 369 376 3% 1% 2%

1) Includes internal sales to BU II (Monomers & Agro)

 

UNIPETROL Group Sales ​​Petrochemicals unit 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 9M 07 9M 08 Q/Q Y/Y 9M/9M
Petrochemicals th t 342 251 405 422 396 1,208 1,222 -6% 16% 1%
Ethylene th t 32 23 38 43 42 1311) 123 -2% 31% -6%
Benzene th t 41 18 43 50 51 1451) 144 2% 24% -1%
Propylene th t 5 3 5 8 9 30 22 13% 80% -27%
Urea th t 42 28 52 41 49 142 142 20% 17% 0%
Ammonia th t 45 37 55 44 48 146 147 9% 7% 1%
C4 fraction th t 33 20 44 46 45 1201) 135 -2% 36% 13%
Oxo-alcohols th t 12 10 15 15 17 44 46 13% 42% 5%
Polyethylene (HDPE) th t 70 58 73 95 62 207 230 -35% -11% 11%
Polypropylene th t 48 36 49 55 53 151 157 -4% 10% 4%

1) Sales to Kaucuk (Synthos) included


Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the third quarter 2008:

Refining
External Environment
After the peak in July (143.5 USD/b on 11th July) the Brent crude oil price started to decrease resulting in 3Q average Brent crude oil price being lower by 5% q/q (115.07 USD/b). At the same time the Brent-Ural price differential got under pressure and dropped to 1.76 USD/b. Model refining margin at 10.56 USD/b was lower 9% q/q, but higher 54% y/y. Diesel spread was still above the 200 USD/t threshold (218 USD/t, +88% y/y, -20% q/q), petrol spread was 125 USD/t (-13% y/y, -6% q/q), This development reflects ongoing lack of diesel and surplus of petrol in the region. CZK ceased strengthening against USD with 3Q average CZK/USD exchange rate at 15.99 (+1% q/q), but much stronger than previous year (-21% y/y). We can expect negative q/q inventory revaluation effect.

Production
All units in Kralupy Litvinov and Pardubice were available for the whole period. 1,216kt of crude oil was processed in 3Q 08; compared to 2Q 08 it means 3% increase. In comparison to 3Q 07 it was 23% higher due to shut down in Sept 07. The middle distillate yield was 4pp higher than the same period previous year.

Sales
Volume sales of fuels in 3Q 08 were 11% higher in comparison to previous quarter due to increase demand and higher export against previous period. Diesel sales were the main driver, when they gained 19% q/q and 37% y/y. Compared to the same period of previous year, the fuel sales added 7%.

Petrochemicals
External Environment
Naphtha price remained flat q/q at 637 EUR/t, but still up 30% y/y. At the end of the period the naphtha quotation further decreased. Thanks to it, and with growth of all monomer prices, the model petrochemical olefin margin (including ethylene, propylene and benzene) improved to 400.79 EUR/t, which is a 41% increase q/q and 9% increase y/y. Model petrochemical polyolefin (HDPE, PP) margin gained 11% q/q to 269.52 EUR/t, but still is 24% below the same period last year. CZK/EUR was at 24.08 in 3Q 08 (-3% q/q, -14% y/y). We can expect negative q/q inventory revaluation effect.

Production
Petrochemical production in 3Q 08 produced more products and semi finished products than in 3Q 07. Unlike 3Q 07, all petrochemical units operated at full allowed capacity. Steam cracker problems with the turbine driving the cooling compressor influenced the polyethylene production when some of the grades could not be produced. Despite it, the steam cracker increased its production by 29% y/y.

Sales
All monomer and agro products recorded growth of volume sales y/y. Ethylene increased by 31%, C4 fraction by 36%, benzene by 24%. Sales of oxo-alcohols increased by 42%, urea by 17% and ammonia by 7%. Polyolefin volume sales in 3Q 08 were flat y/y. Polyethylene sales were lower more than 11% due to technical problem on ethylene unit connected with no production of injection grades on polyethylene unit. Polypropylene sales were higher by 10%.

Retail
External Environment
At the end of September the average retail price for diesel in CR was 1.303 EUR and for petrol (95) 1.252 EUR, which is a decrease q/q by 11% and 9%, respectively.

Sales
Decreasing pump prices and favourable working-days structure resulted in 1% increase in sales y/y and 3% q/q, The total fuel gross margin as planned, supported by favourable unit margin development. Very dynamic growth in gastronomy segment (+200% y/y) and shops (+12% y/y).

Management board EBIT estimate
UNIPETROL Management Board estimates that reported EBIT of UNIPETROL Group in the third quarter 2008 is likely to be lower than the EBIT reported by UNIPETROL Group in the third quarter 2007.

Financial information published in this report is an estimate and the values may differ from the values which are to be published on 13 November 2008 in UNIPETROL consolidated financial statements and/or presentation for the third quarter 2008.

In Prague, 20 October 2008

Management Board of UNIPETROL

Investor Relations Department
UNIPETROL, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00, Praha 4
Czech Republic
Tel.: + 420 225 001 417
E-mail:ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz

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