Reg. Announc. 24/2010
| Average Brent crude oil price |
USD/b |
68.2 |
74.9 |
76.7 |
78.7 |
76.5 |
-3% |
+12% |
57.5 |
77.3 |
+34% |
| Average Ural crude oil price |
USD/b |
67.8 |
74.2 |
75.3 |
76.9 |
75.6 |
-2% |
+12% |
56.6 |
75.9 |
+34% |
| Brent/Ural differential1) |
USD/b |
0.45 |
0.68 |
1.41 |
1.76 |
0.92 |
-48% |
+104% |
0.85 |
1.36 |
+60% |
| Unipetrol model refining margin2) |
USD/b |
1.31 |
1.38 |
3.98 |
3.28 |
1.92 |
-41% |
+47% |
2.27 |
3.06 |
+35% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin3) |
EUR/t |
269 |
240 |
278 |
318 |
302 |
-5% |
+12% |
199 |
299 |
+50% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin4) |
EUR/t |
256 |
251 |
257 |
279 |
313 |
+12% |
+22% |
258 |
283 |
+10% |
| CZK/EUR5) |
CZK |
25.6 |
25.9 |
25.9 |
25.6 |
24.9 |
-3% |
-3% |
26.6 |
25.5 |
-4% |
| CZK/USD5) |
CZK |
17.9 |
17.5 |
18.7 |
20.1 |
19.3 |
-4% |
+8% |
19.4 |
19.4 |
-1% |
| USD/EUR |
USD |
1.43 |
1.48 |
1.38 |
1.27 |
1.29 |
+2% |
-10% |
1.37 |
1.32 |
-4% |
1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines 17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB
| Crude oil throughput |
th t |
1,156 |
1,087 |
948 |
1,082 |
1,182 |
+9% |
+2% |
3,022 |
3,211 |
+6% |
| Utilisation ratio |
% |
84 |
79 |
69 |
79 |
86 |
+7pp |
+2pp |
73 |
78 |
+5pp |
| Light distillates yield1) |
% |
32 |
33 |
34 |
33 |
33 |
0pp |
+1pp |
31 |
33 |
+2pp |
| Middle distillates yield2) |
% |
43 |
44 |
42 |
44 |
45 |
+1pp |
+2pp |
44 |
44 |
0pp |
| Heavy distillates yield3) |
% |
10 |
11 |
9 |
13 |
12 |
-1pp |
+2pp |
10 |
11 |
+1pp |
1) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen
| Fuels and other refinery products1) |
th t |
959 |
868 |
719 |
945 |
982 |
+4% |
+3% |
2,540 |
2,650 |
+4% |
| Diesel1) |
th t |
499 |
433 |
387 |
484 |
507 |
+5% |
+2% |
1,343 |
1,378 |
+3% |
| Gasoline1) |
th t |
235 |
223 |
170 |
236 |
224 |
-5% |
-5% |
635 |
630 |
-1% |
| JET |
th t |
28 |
21 |
18 |
18 |
28 |
+54% |
0% |
53 |
64 |
+20% |
| LPG |
th t |
35 |
30 |
26 |
30 |
37 |
+24% |
+5% |
84 |
93 |
+11% |
| Fuel oils |
th t |
28 |
34 |
52 |
37 |
48 |
+30% |
+70% |
107 |
137 |
+28% |
| Naphtha |
th t |
1 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
-52% |
+67% |
7 |
8 |
+17% |
| Bitumen |
th t |
84 |
61 |
34 |
97 |
97 |
0% |
+16% |
179 |
228 |
+28% |
| Lubs |
th t |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
0% |
+0% |
28 |
31 |
+8% |
| Rest of refinery products |
th t |
38 |
56 |
18 |
30 |
34 |
+14% |
-10% |
103 |
82 |
-21% |
1) Includes retail distribution - Benzina
| Petrochemicals |
th t |
464 |
444 |
455 |
472 |
421 |
-11% |
-9% |
1,381 |
1,347 |
-2% |
| Ethylene |
th t |
37 |
32 |
39 |
51 |
38 |
-25% |
+3% |
110 |
128 |
+16% |
| Benzene |
th t |
49 |
48 |
53 |
53 |
49 |
-9% |
0% |
133 |
155 |
+16% |
| Propylene |
th t |
14 |
9 |
8 |
18 |
10 |
-47% |
-32% |
27 |
36 |
+33% |
| Urea |
th t |
41 |
44 |
49 |
49 |
47 |
-3% |
+16% |
125 |
145 |
+16% |
| Ammonia |
th t |
61 |
59 |
43 |
33 |
29 |
-14% |
-53% |
174 |
105 |
-40% |
| C4 fraction |
th t |
37 |
39 |
42 |
40 |
19 |
-52% |
-48% |
105 |
102 |
-3% |
| Oxo-alcohols |
th t |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
n/a |
-100% |
17 |
0 |
-100% |
| Polyethylene (HDPE) |
th t |
61 |
70 |
66 |
81 |
73 |
-10% |
+18% |
216 |
219 |
+1% |
| Polypropylene |
th t |
52 |
50 |
65 |
61 |
60 |
-2% |
+15% |
164 |
185 |
+13% |
Rest of petrochemical
products |
th t |
110 |
93 |
91 |
85 |
96 |
+14% |
-13% |
309 |
272 |
-12% |
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the third quarter 2010:
The crude price oscillated largely between USD 70-80 level during the third quarter 2010 with average quarterly crude price decreasing by 3% quarter-on-quarter. The deterioration of B-U price differential from the end of previous quarter prevailed during the third quarter 2010 and the average B-U price differential narrowed back below USD 1.0 per barrel. Margins in refining dropped quarter-on-quarter, while combined petrochemical further strengthened and reached over EUR 600 level. The CZK strengthened quarter-on-quarter both against the USD and EUR and thus had negative contribution for refining as well as petrochemical segment, however the dynamics of USD/EUR cross exchange rate partially offsets this.
Refining
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the refining segment in the third quarter 2010 were: higher crude oil throughput by 9% (positive), narrowing of B-U price differential by 48% (negative), stronger CZK against the USD by 4% (negative), LIFO effect (negative), lower refining margin mainly due to weaker gasoline and naphtha spread (negative), higher demand for fuels connected with main motorist season and ongoing export activities (positive).
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the third quarter 2010 were: slightly lower olefin margin by 5% on benzene spread weakness (negative), improved polyolefin margin by 12% (positive) attributed to strong polypropylene spread (positive), lower sales volumes partially due to shift of the start of steam cracker shutdown towards the end of the quarter but also somewhat weaker demand for olefins than in previous quarter (negative), LIFO effect (negative), stronger CZK against the EUR by 3%, was only partially offset by stronger EUR against the USD (negative).
Retail Distribution
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the third quarter 2010 were: improved unit margins (positive), seasonality effect of the motorist season visible only towards the end of the quarter as the main holiday period was negatively influenced by ongoing fuel price differential to neighbouring countries (negative), further improvement of premium fuel sales (positive).
Management Board estimates
Unipetrol’s Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the third quarter 2010 will bepositive, howeverworsethan the EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group in the first quarter 2010.
In LIFO calculation EBIT is estimated to be positive and almost CZK 300m higher than the reported EBIT for the same period (ie. third quarter 2010).
The decision on closure of the outdated T200 heat and power plant is estimated to result in booking reserves and provisions almost CZK 100m in the third quarter 2010, which should be compensated step-by-step with savings till the end of 2011.
Development of foreign exchange rates is estimated to influence negatively the result of the Unipetrol Group by approximately CZK 200m.
The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 29 October 2010 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the third quarter 2010.
In Prague, on 21 October 2010
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz