Unipetrol’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the third quarter 2011.
| Average Brent crude oil price |
USD/b |
76.9 |
86.5 |
105.4 |
117.1 |
113.4 |
-3% |
+48% |
77.2 |
112.0 |
+45% |
| Brent/Ural differential1) |
USD/b |
0.9 |
1.5 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
0.7 |
-74% |
-19% |
1.4 |
2.2 |
+59% |
| Unipetrol model refining margin2) |
USD/b |
1.9 |
4.5 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
+322% |
-41% |
3.1 |
1.0 |
-69% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin3) |
EUR/t |
302 |
255 |
345 |
353 |
292 |
-17% |
-3% |
299 |
330 |
+10% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin4) |
EUR/t |
313 |
278 |
281 |
288 |
251 |
-13% |
-20% |
283 |
273 |
-3% |
| CZK/EUR5) |
CZK |
24.9 |
24.8 |
24.4 |
24.3 |
24.4 |
0% |
-2% |
25.5 |
24.4 |
-4% |
| CZK/USD5) |
CZK |
19.3 |
18.2 |
17.8 |
16.9 |
17.3 |
+2% |
-11% |
19.4 |
17.3 |
-11% |
| USD/EUR |
USD |
1.29 |
1.36 |
1.37 |
1.44 |
1.41 |
-2% |
+9% |
1.32 |
1.41 |
+7% |
1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines 17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: REUTERS, FERTWEEK, ICIS, CNB
| Crude oil throughput |
th t |
1,182 |
1,141 |
879 |
1,112 |
941 |
-15% |
-20% |
3,211 |
2,932 |
-9% |
| Utilisation ratio1) |
% |
93 |
90 |
69 |
87 |
74 |
-13pp |
-19pp |
84 |
77 |
-7pp |
| Light distillates yield2) |
% |
32 |
32 |
32 |
33 |
35 |
+2pp |
+3pp |
32 |
33 |
+1pp |
| Middle distillates yield3) |
% |
44 |
42 |
46 |
43 |
46 |
+3pp |
+2pp |
43 |
45 |
+2pp |
| Heavy distillates yield4) |
% |
10 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
+1pp |
0pp |
10 |
9 |
-1pp |
1) Conversion capacity 5.1 mt/y (Ceska rafinerska – Kralupy 1.6 mt/y, Ceska rafinerska – Litivinov 2.8 mt/y, Paramo 0.7 mt/y)
2) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
3) JET, diesel, light heating oil
4) Fuel oil, bitumen
| Fuels and other refinery products1) |
th t |
982 |
897 |
793 |
908 |
896 |
-1% |
-9% |
2,650 |
2,597 |
-2% |
| Diesel1) |
th t |
507 |
466 |
421 |
489 |
444 |
-9% |
-12% |
1,378 |
1,354 |
-2% |
| Gasoline1) |
th t |
224 |
185 |
185 |
204 |
234 |
+15% |
+4% |
630 |
622 |
-1% |
| JET |
th t |
28 |
22 |
9 |
25 |
25 |
-1% |
-10% |
64 |
60 |
-7% |
| LPG |
th t |
37 |
37 |
25 |
28 |
33 |
+19% |
-10% |
93 |
87 |
-7% |
| Fuel oils |
th t |
48 |
60 |
68 |
27 |
29 |
+5% |
-40% |
137 |
124 |
-9% |
| Naphtha |
th t |
2 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
+2% |
-71% |
8 |
7 |
-22% |
| Bitumen |
th t |
97 |
66 |
32 |
85 |
84 |
-1% |
-14% |
228 |
200 |
-12% |
| Lubs |
th t |
10 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
11 |
-3% |
+5% |
31 |
33 |
+9% |
| Rest of refinery products |
th t |
34 |
39 |
35 |
39 |
36 |
-7% |
+8% |
81 |
111 |
+36% |
1) Includes retail distribution - Benzina
| Petrochemicals |
th t |
421 |
425 |
425 |
429 |
387 |
-10% |
-8% |
1,347 |
1,240 |
-8% |
| Ethylene |
th t |
38 |
36 |
44 |
35 |
34 |
-1% |
-10% |
128 |
113 |
-12% |
| Benzene |
th t |
49 |
56 |
58 |
53 |
43 |
-19% |
-11% |
155 |
154 |
0% |
| Propylene |
th t |
10 |
15 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
+4% |
+3% |
36 |
30 |
-15% |
| Urea |
th t |
47 |
50 |
52 |
42 |
41 |
-4% |
-14% |
133 |
135 |
+1% |
| Ammonia |
th t |
29 |
43 |
36 |
35 |
28 |
-20% |
-3% |
105 |
99 |
-6% |
| C4 fraction1) |
th t |
19 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
15 |
-29% |
-23% |
102 |
55 |
-46% |
| Butadien |
th t |
15 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
-9% |
-12% |
16 |
43 |
+166% |
| Polyethylene (HDPE) |
th t |
73 |
68 |
68 |
70 |
63 |
-11% |
-14% |
219 |
201 |
-8% |
| Polypropylene |
th t |
60 |
56 |
58 |
59 |
51 |
-14% |
-14% |
185 |
168 |
-9% |
| Rest of petrochemical products |
th t |
81 |
68 |
65 |
89 |
88 |
-1% |
+9% |
269 |
242 |
-10% |
1) As of June 2010, only 51% of C4 fraction sales considered as external due to launch of Butadien Kralupy.
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the third quarter 2011:
The crude price oscillated around USD 110 level, average quarterly crude price decreased by 3% quarter-on-quarter. The average B-U price differential plummeted to USD 0.7 per barrel. Margins in refining bounced quarter-on-quarter, while in petrochemical segment corrected previously high levels. The CZK weakened quarter-on-quarter against USD and remained virtually flat against EUR.
Refining
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the refining segment in the third quarter 2011 were: better refining margin driven mainly by diesel, LPG and somewhat lower discounts on heavier products (positive), narrowed B-U price differential further weakened by higher “Brent-Other sweet crude oils” price differential (negative), lower crude oil throughput by 10% due to cyclical shutdown in Litvinov refinery (negative), LIFO effect (positive), weaker CZK against the USD by 2% (positive), 1% lower volumes of fuels sold, especially diesel, connected with slightly lower availability of the products during cyclical shutdown (negative).
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the third quarter 2011 were: improved agro products margin (positive), lower olefin as well as polyolefin margin by 17% and 13% respectively on lower spreads across all type of benchmark products (negative), lower sales volumes due to cyclical shutdown (negative), LIFO effect (negative), 2% weaker EUR against the USD dented slightly profitability as CZK against EUR exchange rate remained flat (negative).
Retail Distribution
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the third quarter 2011 were: lower sold volumes due to continuation of adverse fuel price differential to neighbouring countries (negative), worse weather conditions (negative) and saving behaviour of customers affected by planned government austerity measures (negative), higher unit margins (positive), continuation of improvement of premium fuel sales (positive).
Management Board estimates
Unipetrol’s Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the third quarter 2011 will benegative and could wipe out EBIT contribution from the second quarter.
In LIFO calculation EBIT is estimated to be negative and similar to the reported EBIT for the period (ie. third quarter 2011).
Total capitalized expenditures (incl. investments) related to cyclical shutdown booked in 3Q11 are estimated to reach overCZK 800m, while the rest to be booked in 4Q11 only.
Unipetrol will book one-off item on the level of other operating income in the amount of over CZK 230m related to the reimbursement of fine paid to European Commission for alleged Emulsion Styrene Butadiene Rubber cartel.
Operations with CO2 allowances are estimated to have a positive EBIT impact of approximately CZK 100m in the third quarter 2011.
Development of foreign exchange rates is estimated to influence positively the financial result of the Unipetrol Group by approximately CZK 40m in the third quarter 2011.
The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 4 November 2011 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the third quarter 2011.
In Prague, on 21 October 2011
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
UNIPETROL, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz