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Inside information

22-04-2010  

Estimation of selected operating data of the Unipetrol group For the first quarter 2010

Unipetrol's Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the first quarter 2010.

Reg. Announc. 6/2010

External Environment​​ unit 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 Q/Q Y/Y
Average Brent crude oil price USD/b 44.8 59.4 68.2 74.9 76.7 +2% +71%
Average Ural crude oil price USD/b 43.7 58.5 67.8 74.2 75.3 +1% +72%
Brent/Ural differential1) USD/b 1.19 0.92 0.45 0.68 1.41 +107% +18%
Unipetrol model refining margin2) USD/b 4.23 1.28 1.31 1.38 3.98 +188% -6%
Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin3) EUR/t 146 183 269 240 278 +16% +90%
Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin4) EUR/t 276 242 256 251 257 +2% -7%
CZK/EUR5) CZK 27.6 26.7 25.6 25.9 25.9 0% -6%
CZK/USD5) CZK 21.2 19.6 17.9 17.5 18.7 +7% -12%
USD/EUR USD 1.30 1.36 1.43 1.48 1.38 -7% +6%

1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines 17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.

Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB

 

UNIPETROL Group 
Production
unit 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 Q/Q Y/Y
Crude oil throughput th t 1,018 ​848 1,156 1,087 948 -13% -7%
Utilisation ratio % 74 62 84 79 69 -10pp -5pp
Light distillates yield1) % 32 28 32 33 34 +1pp +2pp
Middle distillates yield2) % 43 47 43 44 42 -2pp -1pp
Heavy distillates yield3) % 8 11 10 11 9 -2pp +1pp

1) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen

 

Sales volumes - 
Refinery products
unit 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 Q/Q Y/Y
Fuels and other refinery products1) th t 838 744 959 868 719 -17% -14%
Diesel1) th t 444 400 499 433 387 -11% -13%
Gasoline1) th t 214 186 235 223 170 -24% -20%
JET th t 16 10 28 21 18 -14% +13%
LPG th t 31 18 35 30 26 -13% -15%
Fuel oils th t 61 18 28 34 52 +54% -14%
Naphtha th t​ 1 5 1 0 3 n/a +197%
Bitumen th t 29 65 84 61 34 -44% +17%
Lubs th t 8 10 10 10 10 +1% +24%
Rest of refinery products th t 34 32 38 56 18 -68% -47%

1) Includes retail distribution - Benzina

 

Sales volumes - 
Petrochemicals
unit 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 Q/Q Y/Y
Petrochemicals th t 463 454 464 444 455 +2% -2%
Ethylene th t 38 35 37 32 39 +20% +2%
Benzene th t 45 40 49 48 53 +9% +17%
Propylene th t 8 5 14 9 8 -16% +2%
Urea th t 48 36 41 44 49 +12% +1%
Ammonia th t 51 61 61 59 43 -27% -17%
C4 fraction th t 38 29 37 39 42 +8% +11%
Oxo-alcohols th t 11 6 1 0 0 0% -100%
Polyethylene (HDPE) th t 70 85 61 70 66 -5% -5%
Polypropylene th t 53 58 52 50 65 +29% +22%
Rest of petrochemical products th t ​100 99 110 93 91 -2% -9%

 

Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the first quarter 2010:

The crude price oscillated largely between USD 70-80 level during the first quarter 2010 with average quarterly crude price increasing by 2% quarter-on-quarter. The B-U price differential showed material improvement especially towards the end of the quarter and on average widened to more than USD 1.4 per barrel, best level since beginning of 2009. Margins in refining almost tripled quarter-on-quarter and petrochemical prolonged its gradual margin strengthening trend. The CZK weakened quarter-on-quarter against the USD, while remained flat against the EUR and USD/EUR cross exchange rate development thus did not help to improve financial performance of the Unipetrol Group.

Refining

The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of refining segment in the first quarter 2010 were: improved refining margin especially due to further improved gasoline and naphtha spread (positive), B-U price differential by 107% (positive), lower crude oil throughput by 7% (negative), the widening, weaker CZK against the USD by 7% (positive), inventory effect (positive), full effect of 2009 cost cutting measures (positive) and lower demand for fuels connected with extreme winter conditions, excise tax and VAT increases at the beginning of the year (negative).

Petrochemicals

The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the first quarter 2010 were: slightly better demand by 2% with increased capacity of polypropylene being visible (positive), improved both polyolefin but especially olefin margins by 2% and 16% respectively (positive), similarly to refining full effect of 2009 cost cutting measures (positive).

Retail Distribution

The main factors that influenced quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the first quarter 2010 were: unit margins remained stable on above average levels (neutral), lower demand due to hoarding effect before the January VAT and excise tax increase (negative), seasonality effect with first quarter being the weakest during the year (negative), improvement in transit transportation (positive) as well as full effect of 2009 cost cutting measures (positive).

Inventory and FX effects

The fluctuation in the crude oil and its derivatives prices during the first quarter 2010 influenced the results of the Unipetrol Group positively by more than CZK 200m.

Development of foreign exchange rates, especially negative development of the EUR versus USD exchange rate in the first quarter 2010, influenced negatively the results of the Unipetrol Group by approximately CZK 100m.

Management Board EBIT estimate

Unipetrol’s Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the first quarter 2010 will bepositive and significantly better than the quarterly EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group since 3Q2008.

The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 13 May 2010 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the first quarter 2010.

In Prague, on 22 April 2010

Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz

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