Unipetrol’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the third quarter 2009.
Reg. Announc. 29/2009
| Average Brent crude oil price |
USD/b |
116.0 |
56.4 |
44.8 |
59.4 |
68.2 |
+15% |
-41% |
111.4 |
57.5 |
-48% |
| Average Ural crude oil price |
USD/b |
113.3 |
54.6 |
43.7 |
58.5 |
67.8 |
+16% |
-40% |
108.1 |
56.6 |
-48% |
| Brent/Ural differential1 |
USD/b |
2.65 |
1.83 |
1.19 |
0.92 |
0.45 |
-51% |
-83% |
3.32 |
0.85 |
-74% |
| Unipetrol model refining margin2 |
USD/b |
6.23 |
5.14 |
4.23 |
1.28 |
1.31 |
+2% |
-79 |
5.88 |
2.27 |
-61% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin3 |
EUR/t |
359 |
503 |
146 |
183 |
267 |
+47% |
-25% |
304 |
199 |
-34% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin4 |
EUR/t |
270 |
36 |
276 |
242 |
256 |
+6% |
-5% |
264 |
258 |
-2% |
| CZK/EUR5 |
CZK |
24.08 |
25.30 |
27.58 |
26.67 |
25.60 |
-4% |
+6% |
24.82 |
26.62 |
+7% |
| CZK/USD5 |
CZK |
15.99 |
19.21 |
21.15 |
19.57 |
17.89 |
-9% |
+12% |
16.31 |
19.54 |
+20% |
| USD/EUR |
USD |
1.51 |
1.32 |
1.30 |
1.36 |
1.43 |
+5% |
-5% |
1.52 |
1.37 |
-10% |
1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97% Products = Gasolines 17%, Petchem feedstock 20%, JET 2%, Diesel 40%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9%, LPG 3%, Sulphur 1%, Other feedstock 5%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB
| Crude oil throughput |
t t |
1,216 |
1,111 |
1,018 |
848 |
1,183 |
+40% |
-3% |
3,422 |
3,049 |
-11% |
| Utilisation ratio |
% |
88 |
79 |
74 |
62 |
86 |
+24pb |
-2pb |
83 |
74 |
-9pb |
| Light distillates yield1 |
% |
32 |
31 |
32 |
28 |
31 |
+3pb |
-1pb |
31 |
30 |
-1pb |
| Middle distillates yield2 |
% |
45 |
43 |
43 |
47 |
42 |
-5pb |
-3pb |
45 |
44 |
-1pb |
| Heavy distillates yield3 |
% |
10 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
-1pb |
0pb |
10 |
10 |
0pb |
1) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen
| Fuels and other refinery products |
th t |
865 |
713 |
689 |
592 |
775 |
+31% |
-10% |
2,227 |
2,056 |
-8% |
| Diesel |
th t |
437 |
361 |
359 |
316 |
386 |
+22% |
-12% |
1,131 |
1,061 |
-6% |
| Gasoline |
th t |
168 |
171 |
171 |
133 |
179 |
+35% |
+7% |
493 |
483 |
-2% |
| JET |
th t |
26 |
21 |
16 |
10 |
28 |
+180% |
+8% |
67 |
54 |
-19% |
| LPG |
th t |
28 |
24 |
26 |
14 |
29 |
+107% |
+4% |
75 |
69 |
-8% |
| Fuel oils |
th t |
37 |
60 |
61 |
18 |
28 |
+56% |
-24% |
150 |
107 |
-29% |
| Naphtha |
th t |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
-50% |
-67% |
4 |
4 |
0% |
| Bitumen |
th t |
84 |
59 |
29 |
65 |
83 |
+28% |
-1% |
196 |
177 |
-10% |
| Lubs |
th t |
12 |
10 |
8 |
10 |
10 |
0% |
-17% |
32 |
28 |
-13% |
| Rest of refinery products |
th t |
69 |
8 |
17 |
25 |
31 |
+24% |
-55% |
78 |
73 |
-6% |
| Retail distribution - Benzina |
th t |
133 |
124 |
109 |
128 |
134 |
+5% |
+1% |
376 |
371 |
-1% |
| Petrochemicals |
th t |
486 |
382 |
443 |
437 |
447 |
+2% |
-8% |
1,481 |
1,327 |
-11% |
| Ethylene |
th t |
23 |
17 |
23 |
20 |
22 |
+10% |
-4% |
73 |
65 |
-11% |
| Benzene |
th t |
51 |
35 |
45 |
40 |
49 |
+23% |
-4% |
144 |
134 |
-7% |
| Propylene |
th t |
9 |
5 |
8 |
5 |
14 |
+180% |
+56% |
22 |
27 |
+23% |
| Urea |
th t |
49 |
39 |
48 |
36 |
41 |
+14% |
-16% |
142 |
125 |
-12% |
| Ammonia |
th t |
48 |
47 |
51 |
61 |
61 |
0% |
+27% |
145 |
173 |
+19% |
| C4 fraction |
th t |
45 |
30 |
38 |
29 |
37 |
+28% |
-18% |
135 |
104 |
-23% |
| Oxo-alcohols |
th t |
17 |
10 |
11 |
6 |
1 |
-83% |
-94% |
46 |
18 |
-61% |
| Polyethylene (HDPE) |
th t |
62 |
57 |
70 |
85 |
61 |
-28% |
-2% |
230 |
216 |
-6% |
| Polypropylene |
th t |
53 |
39 |
53 |
58 |
52 |
-10% |
-2% |
156 |
163 |
+4% |
| Rest of petrochemical products |
th t |
129 |
102 |
96 |
97 |
108 |
+11% |
-16% |
397 |
301 |
-24% |
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the third quarter 2009:
The crude price continued its recovery during the third quarter 2009 with average quarterly crude price increasing by 15% quarter-on-quarter. However the average quarterly crude price was still roughly only 60% of what we have seen this period last year. The B-U price differential did not show any improving dynamics and narrowed further below USD 0.5 per barrel. Margins in refining changed marginally, while petrochemical fared much better. The CZK strengthened quarter-on-quarter both against the USD and the EUR, which partially offsets improved margins in CZK terms, while the USD further weakened against the EUR.
Refining
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of refining segment in the second quarter 2009 were: increased crude oil throughput by 40% (positive), the narrowing B-U price differential by 51% (negative), stronger CZK against the USD by 9% (negative), relatively unchanged low refining margin with continuously adverse situation especially for middle distillates (negative) and still lower demand for fuels even though third quarter is seasonally usually stronger (negative).
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the third quarter 2009 were: marginally improving demand by 2% (positive), lack of polyolefin opportunity exports to Asia (negative), unplanned one week shutdown of steam cracker due to technical issue in polypropylene unit having production effect also on polyethylene units (negative), increasing prices resulting in improved olefin as well as polyolefin margins over whole third quarter by 47% and 6% respectively (positive).
Retail Distribution
The main factors that influenced quarter-on-quarter performance of the retail segment in the third quarter 2009 were: unit margins prolonged its upward trend from the first half of the year (positive), demand has improved with seasonally stronger quarter by 5%, while in year-on-year comparison it managed to reach last year levels (positive), statistics suggest certain improvements in transit transportation (positive), effects related to the economy slowdown are continuing to be visible, however less than in previous quarters (positive).
Inventory and FX effects
The recovery in the crude oil and its derivatives prices during the third quarter 2009 positively influenced the results of the Unipetrol Group. The positive development of the EUR versus USD exchange rate in the third quarter was partially offset by strengthening CZK.
Management Board EBIT(DA) estimate
The Unipetrol Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the third quarter 2009 will bebetterthan the EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group in the second quarter 2009 as well as in the first quarter 2009.
The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 13 November 2009 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the third quarter 2009.
In Prague, on 23 October 2009
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz