Unipetrol’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the second quarter 2009.
Reg. Announc. 25/2009
95
| Average Brent crude oil price |
USD/b |
121.90 |
115.96 |
56.39 |
44.84 |
59.37 |
32% |
-51% |
109.70 |
52.11 |
-52% |
| Average Ural crude oil price |
USD/b |
117.47 |
113.31 |
54.56 |
43.65 |
58.45 |
34% |
-50% |
105.42 |
51.05 |
-52% |
| Brent/Ural differential1 |
USD/b |
4.43 |
2.65 |
1.83 |
1.19 |
0.92 |
-23% |
-79% |
3.66 |
1.06 |
-71% |
| Unipetrol model refining margin2 |
USD/b |
6.79 |
6.23 |
5.14 |
4.23 |
1.28 |
-70% |
-81% |
5.71 |
2.76 |
-52% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin3 |
EUR/t |
251.90 |
358.68 |
502.74 |
146.22 |
183.38 |
25% |
-27% |
275.95 |
164.8 |
-40% |
| Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin4 |
EUR/t |
242.02 |
269.52 |
36.48 |
276.23 |
242.24 |
-12% |
0% |
260.81 |
259.24 |
-1% |
| CZK/EUR5 |
CZK |
24.82 |
24.08 |
25.30 |
27.58 |
26.67 |
-3% |
7% |
25.19 |
27.13 |
8% |
| CZK/USD5 |
CZK |
15.88 |
15.99 |
19.21 |
21.15 |
19.57 |
-7% |
23% |
16.47 |
20.36 |
24% |
| USD/EUR |
USD |
1.56 |
1.51 |
1.32 |
1.30 |
1.36 |
4% |
-13% |
1.53 |
1.33 |
-13% |
1) Spread fwd Brent Dtd vs Ural Rdam = Med Strip - Ural Rdam (Ural CIF Rotterdam)
2) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97.3% Products = Gasolines 17.4%, Petchem feedstock 20.3%, JET 1.7%, Diesel 39.5%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9.2%, LPG 3.3%, Sulphur 0.8%, Other feedstock 5.2%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
4) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
5) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB
IMPORTANT NOTE: Starting from 2Q 2009 Unipetrol introduces NEW way of presenting model margins for Unipetrol Group so as to better reflect and reconcile Unipetrol operating results in refining and petrochemical segment. Data from the past have been restated according to newly presented formulas.
OLD Unipetrol model refining margin:
Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (95.5% Products = Premium Unleaded 23.4%, Regular Unleaded 15.5%, JET 8.3%, Diesel 33.3%, 1% Sulphur Fuel Oil 12.9%, Propane 1.5%, Butane 0.3%, Sulphur 0.4%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated)
NEW Unipetrol model refining margin:
Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (97.3% Products = Gasolines 17.4%, Petchem feedstock 20.3%, JET 1.7%, Diesel 39.5%, Sulphur Fuel Oils 9.2%, LPG 3.3%, Sulphur 0.8%, other feedstock 5.2%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated)
OLD Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin:
Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 33.3% Ethylene + 33.3% Propylene + 33.3% Benzene) minus costs (100% Naphtha)
NEW Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin:
Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 40% Ethylene + 20% Propylene + 20% Benzene + 20% Naphtha) minus costs (100% Naphtha)
There was no change in Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin.
Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin:
Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene)
Crude oil throughput |
t t |
1,179 |
1,216 |
1,111 |
1,018 |
848 |
-17% |
-28% |
2,206 |
1,866 |
-15% |
Utilisation ratio |
% |
86 |
88 |
79 |
74 |
62 |
-12pp |
-24pp |
80 |
68 |
-12pp |
Light distillates yield1 |
% |
30 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
28 |
+4pp |
-2pp |
30 |
30 |
0pp |
Middle distillates yield2 |
% |
47 |
45 |
43 |
43 |
47 |
+4pp |
0pp |
45 |
45 |
0pp |
Heavy distillates yield3 |
% |
10 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
11 |
+3pp |
+1pp |
10 |
9 |
-1pp |
1) LPG, gasoline, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen
| Fuels and other refinery products |
th t |
718 |
865 |
713 |
689 |
592 |
-14% |
-18% |
1,362 |
1,282 |
-6% |
| Diesel |
th t |
356 |
437 |
361 |
359 |
316 |
-12% |
-11% |
694 |
676 |
-3% |
| Gasoline |
th t |
176 |
168 |
171 |
171 |
133 |
-22% |
-24% |
325 |
304 |
-6% |
| JET |
th t |
28 |
26 |
21 |
16 |
10 |
-40% |
-66% |
41 |
26 |
-38% |
| LPG |
th t |
26 |
28 |
24 |
26 |
14 |
-47% |
-47% |
47 |
40 |
-14% |
| Fuel oils |
th t |
38 |
37 |
60 |
61 |
18 |
-71% |
-53% |
113 |
79 |
-30% |
| Naphtha |
th t |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
103% |
n/a |
1 |
3 |
114% |
| Bitumen |
th t |
81 |
84 |
59 |
29 |
65 |
124% |
-19% |
112 |
94 |
-16% |
| Lubs1 |
th t |
10 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
10 |
25% |
-5% |
20 |
18 |
-10% |
| Rest of refinery products1 |
th t |
3 |
69 |
8 |
17 |
25 |
46% |
720% |
9 |
42 |
373% |
| Retail distribution - Benzina |
th t |
129 |
133 |
124 |
109 |
128 |
17% |
-1% |
243 |
237 |
-2% |
1) Reclassification of Gear/Bear/Hydraulic Oils from Rest of refinery products into Lubs
| Petrochemicals |
th t |
517 |
486 |
382 |
443 |
437 |
-1% |
-16% |
1,005 |
880 |
-12% |
| Ethylene |
th t |
28 |
23 |
17 |
23 |
20 |
-12% |
-28% |
50 |
44 |
-14% |
| Benzene |
th t |
50 |
51 |
35 |
45 |
40 |
-12% |
-21% |
93 |
84 |
-9% |
| Propylene |
th t |
8 |
9 |
5 |
8 |
5 |
-33% |
-36% |
13 |
13 |
-3% |
| Urea |
th t |
41 |
49 |
39 |
48 |
36 |
-25% |
-13% |
93 |
84 |
-9% |
| Ammonia |
th t |
45 |
48 |
47 |
51 |
61 |
19% |
36% |
97 |
112 |
15% |
| C4 fraction |
th t |
46 |
45 |
30 |
38 |
29 |
-23% |
-36% |
90 |
68 |
-25% |
| Oxo-alcohols |
th t |
15 |
17 |
10 |
11 |
6 |
-44% |
-60% |
29 |
17 |
-43% |
| Polyethylene (HDPE) |
th t |
95 |
62 |
57 |
70 |
85 |
21% |
-11% |
168 |
155 |
-8% |
| Polypropylene |
th t |
55 |
53 |
39 |
53 |
58 |
10% |
7% |
103 |
112 |
8% |
| Rest of petrochemical products |
th t |
135 |
129 |
102 |
96 |
97 |
0% |
-29% |
268 |
193 |
-28% |
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the second quarter 2009:
The crude price continued its recovery during the second quarter 2009 and after three consecutive quarters with declining average quarterly crude price we have seen quarter-on-quarter increase. However the average quarterly crude price was only roughly half of what we have seen this period last year. The B-U price differential narrowed further falling to a new multi-year lows and remains depressed. The CZK strengthened quarter-on-quarter both against the USD and the EUR, while the USD weakened slightly against the EUR.
Refining
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of refining segment in the second quarter 2009 were: planned maintenance shutdown in Kralupy refinery (April-June), the increase in the price of crude oil and its derivatives, the narrowing B-U price differential, stronger CZK against the USD, lowering refinery margin with only small improvement for gasoline-crude spreads and continuing lower demand for fuels.
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the second quarter 2009 were: demand for olefins relatively good but still below traditional levels, moderately increasing prices resulting in improved olefin margins with some weakness at the end of the period, while polyolefins faced with increasing feedstock costs and still rather depressed demand reflected in weaker polyolefin margins, supply tightening throughout Europe with some production cutbacks and plant upsets.
Retail Distribution
The main factors that influenced the performance of the retail segment in the second quarter 2009 were: continuation of effects related to the economy slow down, however the decline of Czech fuel retail market is decelerating, less transit transportation, successfully implemented cost intervention project with clean contribution, unit margins continued its recovery from the end of the first quarter 2009 leading to stabilization towards the end of the period.
Inventory and FX effects
The recovery in the crude oil price during the second quarter 2009 positively influenced the results of the Unipetrol Group. The positive development of the EUR versus USD exchange rate in the second quarter was offset by strengthening CZK.
Management Board EBIT(DA) estimate
The Unipetrol Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the second quarter 2009 will probably beworsethan the EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group in the first quarter 2009 but still better than in the fourth quarter 2008. The estimated EBIT in the second quarter 2009 will probably be negative, while estimated EBITDA positive.
The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 31 August 2009 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the second quarter 2009.
In Prague, on 28 July 2009
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail: ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz