Unipetrol’s Management Board hereby announces its estimates of the selected financial and operating data of Unipetrol Group for the first quarter 2009.
| External Environment |
unit |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
1Q 09 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
| Average Brent crude oil price |
USD/b |
96.25 |
121.91 |
115.96 |
56.39 |
44.84 |
-20% |
-53% |
| Average Ural crude oil price |
USD/b |
93.35 |
117.47 |
113.33 |
54.59 |
43.65 |
-20% |
-53% |
| Brent/Ural differential |
USD/b |
2.89 |
4.44 |
2.63 |
1.81 |
1.19 |
-34% |
-59% |
| Model refining margin1 |
USD/b |
6.84 |
11.65 |
10.56 |
9.10 |
6.92 |
-24% |
1% |
| Model petrochemical olefin margin2 |
EUR/t |
345.08 |
284.70 |
400.79 |
557.23 |
142.22 |
-74% |
-59% |
| Model petrochemical polyolefin margin3 |
EUR/t |
279.59 |
242.02 |
269.52 |
36.48 |
276.23 |
657% |
-1% |
| CZK/EUR4 |
CZK |
25.56 |
24.82 |
24.08 |
25.30 |
27.58 |
9% |
8% |
| CZK/USD4 |
CZK |
17.05 |
15.88 |
15.99 |
19.21 |
21.15 |
10% |
24% |
| USD/EUR |
USD |
1.50 |
1.56 |
1.51 |
1.32 |
1.30 |
-1% |
-13% |
1) Unipetrol model refining margin = revenues from products sold (95.5% Products = Premium Unleaded 23.4%, Regular Unleaded 15.5%, Jet/Kerosene 8.3%, Diesel 33.3%, 1% Sulphur Fuel Oil 12.9%, Propane 1.5%, Butane 0.3%, Sulphur 0.4%) minus costs (100% input = Brent Dated); products prices according to quotations.
2) Unipetrol model petrochemical olefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 33.3% Ethylene + 33.3% Propylene + 33.3% Benzene) minus costs (100% Naphtha); products prices according to quotations.
3) Unipetrol model petrochemical polyolefin margin = revenues from products sold (100% Products = 60% HDPE + 40% Polypropylene) minus costs (100% input = 60% Ethylene + 40% Propylene); products prices according to quotations.
4) Quarterly average foreign exchange rates by the Czech National Bank.
Source: ICIS, PLATTS, FERTWEEK, THOMSONREUTERS, CNB
| Production |
unit |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
1Q 09 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
Crude oil throughput |
th t |
1,027 |
1,179 |
1,216 |
1,111 |
1,018 |
-8% |
-1% |
Utilisation ratio |
% |
74 |
86 |
88 |
79 |
74 |
-5pp |
0pp |
Light distillates yield1 |
% |
29 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
23 |
-8pp |
-6pp |
Middle distillates yield2 |
% |
42 |
47 |
45 |
43 |
43 |
0pp |
+1pp |
Heavy distillates yield3 |
% |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
8 |
-2pp |
-2pp |
1) LPG, petrol, naphtha
2) JET, diesel
3) Fuel oils, bitumen
| Sales volumes - Refinery products |
unit |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
1Q 09 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
| Fuels and other refinery products1 |
th t |
643 |
718 |
865 |
713 |
699 |
-2% |
9% |
| Diesel |
th t |
337 |
356 |
437 |
361 |
359 |
0% |
7% |
| Petrol |
th t |
149 |
176 |
168 |
171 |
171 |
0% |
15% |
| JET |
th t |
13 |
28 |
26 |
21 |
26 |
25% |
100% |
| LPG |
th t |
21 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
26 |
11% |
28% |
Fuel oils |
th t |
75 |
38 |
37 |
60 |
61 |
2% |
-18% |
| Naphtha |
th t |
1 |
0 |
3 |
0 |
1 |
n/a |
-29% |
| Bitumen |
th t |
31 |
81 |
84 |
59 |
29 |
-50% |
-7% |
| Lubs |
th t |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
5 |
-18% |
-20% |
Other refinery products |
th t |
9 |
7 |
74 |
12 |
20 |
67% |
126% |
| Retail distribution - Benzina |
th t |
114 |
129 |
133 |
124 |
109 |
-12% |
-4% |
1) 2008 figures restated, exclusion of internal sales to Benzina
| Sales volumes - Petrochemicals |
unit |
1Q 08 |
2Q 08 |
3Q 08 |
4Q 08 |
1Q 09 |
Q/Q |
Y/Y |
| Petrochemicals1 |
th t |
487 |
517 |
486 |
382 |
443 |
16% |
-9% |
| Ethylene |
th t |
22 |
28 |
23 |
17 |
23 |
34% |
5% |
| Benzene |
th t |
43 |
50 |
51 |
35 |
45 |
28% |
4% |
| Propylene |
th t |
5 |
8 |
9 |
5 |
8 |
45% |
46% |
| Urea |
th t |
52 |
41 |
49 |
39 |
48 |
23% |
-6% |
| Ammonia |
th t |
53 |
45 |
48 |
47 |
51 |
8% |
-3% |
C4 fraction |
th t |
44 |
46 |
45 |
30 |
38 |
28% |
-13% |
| Oxo-alcohols |
th t |
15 |
15 |
17 |
10 |
11 |
12% |
-26% |
Polyethylene (HDPE) |
th t |
72 |
95 |
62 |
57 |
70 |
23% |
-3% |
| Polypropylene |
th t |
49 |
55 |
53 |
39 |
53 |
35% |
9% |
Other petrochemical products |
th t |
133 |
135 |
129 |
102 |
96 |
-6% |
-28% |
1) 2008 figures restated, inclusion of other petrochemical products
Management Board commentary regarding preliminary operating and macroeconomic data for the first quarter 2009:
The crude price broke its declining trend after reaching its low at the end of 2008 and stabilized at USD mid-40 in the first quarter 2009. However the average quarterly crude price still experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline. The B-U price differential narrowed further falling to a new 7-year-low, but recovered somewhat towards the end of the period. The CZK extended its quarter-on-quarter weakening against both the USD and the EUR, while the USD remained relatively stable against the EUR.
Refining & Marketing
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of R&M in the first quarter 2009 were: the decline in the price of crude oil and its derivatives, the narrowing B-U price differential, the weaker CZK against the USD, a lower refinery margin, a small improvement only for gasoline-crude as well as naphtha-crude price spreads but low demand for fuels.
Petrochemicals
The main factors that influenced the quarter-on-quarter performance of the petrochemical segment in the first quarter 2009 were: market demand under further pressure (combined factors of de-stocking and end-use drop) resulting in lower prices of petrochemical products, customers’ stocks falling to historical lows, the change to a monthly quotation for olefins, a slump in olefin margins, while polyolefin margins recovered from the fourth quarter low but still remained under historical levels.
Retail Distribution
In the first quarter 2009, the volume of the Czech retail market declined by a mid-single-digit figure year-on-year as the economy slowed down and transit transportation decreased. Unit margins remained under pressure from the previous quarter because of the dramatic price moves of products, while some recovery was visible towards the end of the period.
Inventory and FX effects
The recovery in the crude oil price at the end of the first quarter 2009 compared to the end of the fourth quarter 2008 together with the developments of the EUR and USD exchange rates in the first quarter 2009 positively influenced the results of the Unipetrol Group compared to the previous quarter.
Management Board EBIT(DA) estimate
The Unipetrol Management Board estimates that the reported EBIT of the Unipetrol Group in the first quarter 2009 will probably bebetterthan the EBIT reported by the Unipetrol Group in the fourth quarter 2008. The estimated EBIT in the first quarter 2009 will probably be negative, while estimated EBITDA positive.
The financial information published in this report is estimated and the values may differ from the values which will be published on 14 May 2009 in Unipetrol’s consolidated financial statements and/or the presentation for the first quarter 2009.
In Prague, 21 April 2009
Management Board of Unipetrol
and
Investor Relations Department
Unipetrol, a.s.
Na Pankraci 127, 140 00 Prague
Czech Republic
Tel.: +420 225 001 417
E-mail:ir@unipetrol.cz
www.unipetrol.cz